Playing Angles on the Exchange

Someone recently described the following 'angle' to me.  Identify cheap speed prior to the race - horses who typically will lead at some point early in the race, before tiring and finishing far back. While the odds at or near post-time are likely to provide a fairly accurate reflection of the horses' chance of winning the race, it seems like that there could be inefficiencies in their odds as the race is run.  With Betfair's in-play wagering, there is an opportunity to take advantage of this.  One could potentially wait until the speed horse takes the lead in the race.  At that point, it seems likely that the horse's odds would overrate their chance of winning, and betting against them could be a profitable angle.  Note that this will only be an option at those tracks that allow in-play wagering.

Exchange Wagering Now Available For Penn National

Betfair has now added Penn National to the list of tracks for which exchange wagering is available.  Given availability of race videos for Penn National in the UK, liquidity is expected to be strong for the newly added track.

Exchange Wagering at Keeneland and Woodbine

Betfair has announced that Keeneland and Woodbine will be among the tracks with exchange wagering this year.

The full list now includes Keeneland, Woodbine, Monmouth, Meadowlands, Charles Town, Delta Towns, Emerald Downs, Evangeline Downs, Hawthorne, Mountaineer, Presque Isle Downs, Sam Houston, Tampa Bay Downs, Turf Paradise, Turfway Park, and Will Rogers Downs.

Betfair and DRF Webinar

Betfair and Daily Racing Form are doing another introduction to exchange wagering in New Jersey today at 2pm Eastern.  The presenters will be Bart Barden (US Exchange Director for Betfair) and Peter Thomas Fornatale from DRF.  They'll be talking about how to use NJX and taking a live look at some of Friday's races at Monmouth Park.  The sign-up link is: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/640881513453588740 for anyone who's interested.

Update on Status of Exchange Wagering in California

I haven't seen any other coverage of this, but thought I'd provide an update.  My understanding is that in addition to NJ, exchange wagering is technically legal in California (and has been for years), but just hasn't "been implemented".  It's a bit unclear to me whether this simply means that Betfair or other potential operators haven't yet been able to reach an agreement with industry participants in California, or whether some sort of regulatory action needs to take place.

In any case, the bill legalizing exchange wagering in California apparently became 'inoperative' on May 1st and was set to be repealed on January 1st of next year.  The California legislature is working towards extending the deadlines by four years, with the assembly having already passed the extension and the senate beginning to consider it now: https://legiscan.com/CA/bill/AB2808.

You can read the full text of the legislation being considered here: https://legiscan.com/CA/text/AB2808/2015.

Betfair Exchange Simulator

I just noticed that Betfair has an exchange simulator.  According to at least one of their tweets, you don't have to be in New Jersey to play around with the simulator.  It's pretty simple (and not an exact replica of the betting exchange), but will at least let you get familiar with the basics of how the exchange works, while you wait for exchange wagering to come to your state.

Modified Exchange Spread Calculator

I've made a slight addition to the exchange spread calculator.  It now includes two different measures of the size of the spread.  What used to be displayed as the spread is the difference between the odds implied by the best 'Bet For' available and the best 'Best Against' available, which is now labeled as 'Spread Diff' and there's also a column for 'Spread Pct' (expressed as the difference in implied chance of winning over the chance of the best available 'Bet For' offered (which will always have a higher implied chance of winning than available 'Bet Against' odds.

For example, if a horse has a Bet For of 4 available (25%) and a Bet Against of 5 available (20%), the spread diff would be 5% and the spread pct would be 20% (5%/25%).  Here's an example what the calculator display looks like now.  As before, sign up for my email list and send me an email at zelvin30@hotmail.com if you want a copy of the calculator.  Also, let me know if you'd be interested if I create a 'live' version that updates in real-time.